- Misc ramblings about how cool NVIDIA is and how much it is one of the analyst's favorites companies.
- Focus (has been for a while) on the intersection between Consumer Electronics and Computing
- ASPs have increased over the course of the last 10 years
[B]- The dynamic (and thus ASPs) has the opportunity to stay the same.[/B]
[B]- Organized in 4 business units.[/B]
-- GPUs are our largest business unit.
- Associated Brand: "GeForce", one of the best known technology brands in the world.
[B]-- MCPs are our fastest growing business unit in terms of dollars.[/B]
[B]- Grew 100% last year. 300M Revenue annually. [U]On good track to improve 100% again[/U].[/B]
- Associated Brand: nForce. Voted number 1 brand for corelogic, and not Intel!
-- Professionnal Solutions Business
- Sell stuff to content PROVIDERS for other people using our GPUs. But also for films!
- Associated Brand: Quadro. Made its way into basically ALL GPU-related workstations.
-- Handheld Business, with 3G Cellphones as target last year, 3GSM this year too.
- Customers: Sony Ericsson with their Walkman Phone, Motorola with their 3G Razor.
- Target: Smart phones, portable game/content players (PSP/IPOD/GAMEBOY-like).
- Very fast growing business, higher in relative terms but lower in absolute terms than MCPs thus.
- For the 4 businesses: PCs, Game Consoles, Handset, Car Navigation Systems, etc.
- Don't do "basic" (unhearable) CE devices, not sufficiently complex to fit in our expertise.
- Market of $20-30B, expansion with multimedia => growth opportunities.
- About possibility of becoming a $10B company: "Most people thought it'd be pretty tough to be a $500M company".
- Don't think in those concepts. Company can become very large if you work on sufficiently value-added things
- And you need to have a management team and a culture that can sustain that growth. Not much more complicated than that.
[B]- Benefit of our business: people love to work for us just because they can help building amazing things.[/B]
- [bunch of gibberish about our position being better this year, SLI being pwnage, etc. etc.]
[B]- Last year, our MCP business grew 100% exclusively on nForce4 Discrete Core Logic.[/B]
[B]- So there is a LOT, LOT of room with integrated core logic![/B]
[B][U]- Both of those designs are going to get OEM design wins we were really weak on last year.[/U][/B]
[B][U]- Weak OEM position, especially so with the US OEMs. Coming into this year, we are at 20-25% (GPU&MCP)[/U][/B]
[B][U]- Expecting to much more than double, or possibly triple, their marketshare in OEMs as we leave our [/U][/B]
[B][U]- That's for desktop, notebook, etc. - was first to market. So all that is ramping right now through spring[/U][/B]
- So expecting IGP, New OEM Design Wins, etc.; continuing progressive growth.
- Expecting good Q1 & Q2 thanks to share gains etc. => seasonality will be countered [partially?]
- Desktop and Notebook markets are radically different, because of DIFFERENT CYCLES mostly.
[B]- Desktop PC is more modular => The desktop cycle lags the notebook cycle by 3 to 4 to 5 months.[/B]
- So you've got to release earlier, or you don't get the market.
- Also limited by physical space and power/heat properties. So it has to focus on performance-per-watt.
- Performance-Per-Watt has doubled [between GF6 & GF7]
[B]- HD Decoding requires 20-25x more processing power.[/B]
[B]- So CPUs are likely to struggle, especially so if you care about power/heat[/B]
[B]- As such, that's a further advantage for the notebook market.[/B]
- Overall, we think it's gonna be a "pretty good year for us in notebooks".
[B][U]- My sense is that our US OEM Notebook share is 10%, OEM Global Notebook share is around 20+%.[/U][/B]
[B][U]- Hoping we can "triple that, double to triple that" as we leave the year.[/U][/B]
- [Vista: misc. ramblings about GPU importance]
- [Vista: the interface is really nice, according to Jen Hsun Huang]
[B]- Vista has the ability to have applets taking advantage of the GPU [so it'll help over time too for adoption.][/B]
- Any application that wants programmable access to the GPU now has it. Potential big usage shift.
- [misc. other Vista-related rambling and generalities about ASPs thus remaining stable]
- BluRay vs HD-DVD: "It's really hard to say". But PS3 BluRay => Highest Volume Media By The End Of This Year.
- Almost all movie studios have backed Bluray, some back both though. So the content will be there.
[B]- Jen Hsun's Reminder: "The Matrix DVD was the PS2 Killer App". If Sony backs BR properly, it's the "program's conclusion".[/B]
- "So I think your RSX full production silicon is ready" - "Yeh."
[B][U]- "Sony is manufacturing RSX in their own fabs, as well as Toshiba fabs"[/U][/B]
- "Our focus now is on diesize reduction and bring up more fabs"
- In terms of our economic relationship with Sony, it has 3 parts:
--- NRA: "We are signed up to build the RSX for Sony, to port RSX to multiple fabs to increase the capacity."
- Had the think in terms of being able to build 30M units a year. Needed to potentially repeat the PS2 success.
[B]- Tons of different fabs needed to reach that capacity, so it's a lot of work.[/B]
[B]- For us, we're also signed up to do cost reduction to new processes.[/B]
-- Also working on making the RSX more prevelant at Sony. RSX+CELL = Digital Architecture for Sony.
- So they want to use that architecture in all kinds of things, among which HD Video-related.
- Look at PS2: Two huge chips back one, One small chip that's hardly costing anything now.
[B]- So, have to "reimplement the RSX" within the next 10 years into all those kinds of digital devices.[/B]
[B]- Considered to be a 50% Margins Business.[/B]
[B]--- License Element of the PS3: Extra fixed licensing revenue every quarter for 3 years.[/B]
[B]- Been recognizing that for a couple of quarters now.[/B]
- That applies to the PS3, but also the use of RSX Technology in "all of these other platforms".
--- Royalty Component, as they ship our technology in each of these platforms.
- That element of our business hasn't started yet.
[B][U]- But lead time ahead of when you might see boxes in the market.[/U] [Uttar: Reminder: They said June/July for Royalties][/B]
--- System is structured so that licensing revenue is likely to stop when royalty revenue peaks.
- "In the front of the life of the PS3, it's all NRA and it's all fixed license fees"
- "So that's why we're seeing the benefits of Sony and PS3 pretty substantially this year"
- "The PSP is really one the last 3D devices that will be built inhouse by anybody on the planet"
- "Nobody has invested beyond Texture Mapping [that is, besides the industry-only companies, thus Intel kinda]"
- "Not one vertically integrated company has invested in internal programmable shading architecture - ever."
- It was a huge discontinuity in investment, so from his pov, it doesn't make sense without volumes like theirs.
[B]- "Our technology is pretty open market, and we're delighted to sell to anybody who wants to buy it".[/B]
[B]- So it seems illogical to want to reinvent it.[/B]
[B]- "Well we hope that... uhm... yeah, we would like that... uh.... we would be ecstatic to work on[/B]
[B]future generation game consoles and, uhm, you know, whether it's be... uh... uhm... gameboy or PSP, the[/B]
[B]volumes are just so enormous... and... hum... and it's always fun to have in your pocket something you built."[/B]
- "As you know, the foundries did a great job with 90 - and I think the reason for that is that 130 was so hard,
90 is, uhm, 90 is, uhm, I don't think it's easy but it seems like a wall in the park for them. So, we are
ramping up 90 pretty aggressively... Our 7900, the new high-end is 90, the 7600 which is the follow-up to our
really really successful 6600 is a 90... and, uhm, 7300 is a 90. We have integrated core logic going on in the 90
[B][U]- "And very quickly we'll be doing a shrink in the 80 for cost improvement reasons, but basically it's the[/U][/B]
[B][U]same process. Most of our new desgins [unhearable] in the pipeline are 65 so, uhm, we are investing in[/U][/B]
[B][U]65 now and 55 very shortly after that."[/U][/B]
[B][U]- NV50-related...[/U][/B]
- "Increasing flexibility of the programmability, enabling the artists to express themselves in a free way."
- "Our next generation product will just take [effects] to a brand new level"
[B][U]- "Our next generation product is the combination of 3 years of heavy-duty work. We started architecting it [/U][/B][B][U]about 4 years ago, and, you know, my best calculations have this investing $250M into it already, and by [/U][/B][B][U]the time it launches as well as the entire product family, we will have invested about $500M in R&D."[/U][/B]
- "It is a spectacular computing machine and, uhm, we can't wait to show it to you later this year".
- "And this year, along with Vista, is going to introduce a very important new API, it's called DX10"
- "And DX10 is just a giant leap forward in unifying the way people program graphics. Instead of, you know,"
"vertices, and shaders and textures, it's unified in a very elegant way. And it's unified in a way that
"makes it possible for us to abstract [GPU] programming to the next level."
- "Our DX10 [part] is nearly finished now, and uhm, it'll be rolled out this year sometime."
[U]-[B] "And, uhm, if I have my way, our next generation GPU will be the first DX10 GPU in the world."[/B][/U]